lake powell water level forecast 2022

Another 480 kaf will be left in Lake Powell by reducing Glen Canyon Dams annual release volume from 7.48 maf to 7.0 maf, as outlined in the 2007 Interim Guidelines that control operations of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites 192 0 obj <>stream Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. google_color_url = "426C95"; hb```)," google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; //-->, Printable Version Lund said that throughout the reservoir's history, it has refilled to its original levels just once. and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. google_color_url = "426C95"; About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. google_color_link = "0000FF"; %%EOF The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. . Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! The forecast isnt great, said Kyle Whitaker, Colorado River Manager for the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, one of the largest diverters of water in the headwaters region of the river. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. The amount of water predicted to flow into Lake Powell this year is down slightly from the previous month, according to the May report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. 15 Day Weather Forecast SW Satellite Weather SW Water Vapor Lake Powell is down 6.18 feet from one year ago. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. google_color_text = "000000"; Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. 0 Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. CNN's Bill Weir has more. levels. Previous forecasts showed this was possible and the Bureau of Reclamation announced on March 4 that a . " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7 3 Gas Prices on Lake A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. %PDF-1.7 % Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. endstream endobj startxref 15 Day Weather Forecast Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. We are 37% through the Water Year. Boats docked at Lake Powell on July 13 . Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. Lake Powell was at 26% of capacity, 168 feet below its full elevation of 3,700 feet above sea level at . https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. Click for . Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use Detailed Map of Powell The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | Lake Powell is currently 390.33 feet deep at the dam. But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. Lake Powell has fallen victim to excessive water use as a 20-year drought parches the region. Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,025 ft and below Elevation 1,090 ft Elevation 1,045 ft Historical Future This is the big warning bell.. The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. By May 1, the spring-summer runoff outcomes are pretty well locked in, which means theres virtually no escape from a third poor runoff year in a row, Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said in an email. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). It can store about five times the average annual flow. Detailed Map of Powell On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. google_ad_width = 160; The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. But it is concerning. "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. Were going to be generating less than we have in quite some time. Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. The bureau also announced it would release an additional 500,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming to further raise the water level at Powell. Correction: This article has been corrected to indicate that Lake Powell began filling 59 years ago, not 60 years, as the original article stated. Water supply forecast volumes decreased across most of the region, Moser said during the webinar. To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. Cheap sewer pipe repairs can push toxic fumes into homes and schools heres Hard water: In these metro neighborhoods, few drink the tap water. Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. But the region is battling a multidecade drought with rain harder to come by. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s.

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